David Skolnick

Republicans on the Ohio Redistricting Commission drew a congressional map four years ago that they anticipated would give their political party a 12-3 advantage in the U.S. House over Democrats.

Instead, two toss-up districts – one with Akron as its largest city and another with Toledo – went to Democrats in the 2022 and 2024 elections.

Expect Republicans to make it harder for Democrats to maintain their slim advantages in those two districts when the lines are redrawn for the 2026 election.

That Democrats were able to win those two toss-up seats as Ohio continues to trend more Republican was a surprise to even opponents of the district lines. The map was ruled unconstitutional by the Ohio Supreme Court after a different map drawn by Republican state legislators was also determined to be unconstitutional by the court.

But because Democrats won those two districts in the 2022 election, those who challenged the legality of the map dropped lawsuits in 2023 and said they were willing to live for another two years with the same lines.

Before redistricting, Republicans had a 12-4 advantage in Ohio. The state lost one district because its population didn’t grow as fast as the rest of the state.

Republicans have a 10-5 advantage in the state’s congressional delegation.

The two toss-up districts in Ohio are considered among the most competitive in the country.

U.S. Rep. Emilia Sykes, D-Akron, beat Republican Kevin Coughlin in the 13th Congressional District by 8,542 votes.

It was even closer in the 9th District with U.S. Rep. Marcy Kaptur beating Republican Derek Merrin by just 2,382 votes.

Republicans will almost certainly draw a map that adds a few more red-controlled communities in those two districts in order to flip them in 2026.

If Republicans carve up Sykes’ district, she may end up running statewide.

Sykes’ district includes all of Summit County, most of Stark and a sliver of Portage.

It borders both the 6th and 14th, both safe Republican districts. The 6th District includes all of Mahoning, its most populous county, while the 14th takes in the upper northeast portion of the state with Trumbull as its second most populous county.

The 6th includes a large chunk of Stark while that sliver of Portage is all that is missing from the county being whole in the 14th District.

If Republicans want to beat Sykes, their best option would be to take parts or all of Stark County out of the 6th and put it in the 13th District, as that county is mostly Republican.

It won’t hurt U.S. Rep. Michael Rulli, R-Salem, who represents the 6th at all, as whatever neighboring parts of his congressional district – more of Tuscarawas County or small counties south of Washington – are largely Republican.

When congressional redistricting was done four years ago there was hope from those in the Mahoning Valley that all of Mahoning and Trumbull would be in one district.

The Republican-controlled state Legislature, which got the first crack at drawing the lines, put the two counties in one district. But after the Ohio Supreme Court ruled that map unconstitutional, the Ohio Redistricting Commission separated the two counties.

There is little chance that a new map will reunite the two counties.

There was an effort on the Nov. 5 ballot to take drawing congressional and state legislative districts away from politicians and give it to a citizens commission. But the measure failed – in part because of how Republicans wrote the ballot language.

Ohio Republican Party Chairman Alex Triantafilou was recently quoted at a Sandusky County Republican event about the issue: “Confusion means we don’t know so we did our job. Confusing Ohioans was not such a bad strategy.”

In response, Ohio Democratic Party Chairwoman Elizabeth Walters said: “The GOP lied to voters to cling to their power and corruption and now Chair Triantafilou is openly bragging about confusing voters in order to win.”

Also, no matter what Republicans do with the congressional map, there isn’t much to worry about interference from the Ohio Supreme Court.

Unlike the old court, which rejected congressional maps twice and state legislative maps five times, this new court is 6-1 in favor of Republicans.

It’s highly unlikely that this court will throw out any congressional map passed by Republicans.

David Skolnick covers politics for the Tribune Chronicle and The Vindicator.

dskolnick@tribtoday.com