Democrat Bill O’Neill, a former Ohio Supreme Court justice, faces an uphill battle next year when he challenges U.S. Rep. Dave Joyce for the 14th Congressional District seat.

O’Neill, a Chagrin Falls Democrat, is no stranger to voters — particularly in this congressional district — as he’s been on the ballot for various elected offices in 1992, 1996, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012 and 2018.

Joyce, a Bainbridge Republican, has established himself as one of the most successful politicians in Northeast Ohio. After six four-year terms as Geauga County prosecutor, Joyce ran for the 14th Congressional District in the 2012 general election.

The district definitely favors Republicans, but Joyce has outperformed the GOP advantage in his seven campaigns for the seat.

In his seven elections, only one Democrat received more than 40% of the vote against Joyce. That was Betsy Rader in 2018 with 44.8%.

Before the 2024 election, the 14th District, which includes Trumbull County, had a 10% Republican advantage based on votes in partisan statewide elections in the previous decade. That only increased with the solid victories of statewide Republicans in last year’s election in the congressional district.

Republicans in the state will redraw the congressional district lines this year for the 2026 election.

The 14th District is unlikely to see much of a change. The district includes all of Trumbull, Ashtabula, Lake and Geauga counties and all but two communities in Portage County.

Joyce is so dominant in the congressional district that the only Democrat to challenge him last year was Brian Bob Kenderes.

Kenderes raised no money, didn’t campaign and before the election, he was found guilty of filing a false voter registration, a felony. He served a 30-day Lake County jail sentence after the election.

Kenderes got 36.6% of the vote.

O’Neill said, “If I can’t add 15 points to that, I should stay in retirement.”

O’Neill’s last election ended badly for him. He finished a distant fourth with 3.3% of the vote in the 2018 Democratic primary for governor.

O’Neill has had both successes and failures as a judicial candidate.

He lost the 1992 general election for a seat on the Warren-based 11th District Court of Appeals — the court’s lines are virtually the same as those of the congressional district — and then won races for the appeals court in 1996 and 2002.

O’Neill then lost the 2004 and 2006 general elections for seats on the Ohio Supreme Court, but won a spot on the state’s high court in 2012.

In between those Ohio Supreme Court races, O’Neill ran in 2008 and 2010 for the 14th Congressional District against Republican Steven LaTourette, who held the seat before Joyce.

In the 2008 election, LaTourette beat O’Neill by 14.6%. It was much worse for O’Neill in the 2010 rematch. He lost to LaTourette by 33.5%. In that election, O’Neill’s voting percentage was even lower than that of Kenderes in 2024.

O’Neill had his first campaign event on March 22 in Lake County in which about 100 people attended.

O’Neill said he plans to target Joyce on his silence about the President Donald Trump administration and Elon Musk, a Trump adviser affiliated with the Department of Government Efficiency.

“Joyce can either represent Elon Musk or his district,” O’Neill said. “He can’t have it both ways. He’s been silent for the last two months while our country has been pulled apart.”

Musk will likely transition out of his role with DOGE in the coming weeks and take on a more supportive role in the Trump administration.

Joyce has been silent on O’Neill’s candidacy, just as he was about Kenderes and practically every other candidate he’s faced.

Asked to comment on O’Neill, Joyce’s campaign didn’t respond.

O’Neill said he won’t raise any money for his congressional bid, just like his 2012 Ohio Supreme Court win. Even if he did, O’Neill couldn’t compete financially with Joyce.

Joyce is one of the strongest fundraisers in the Ohio congressional delegation and always greatly outraised and outspent his opponents.

Joyce already has an incredible head start. His campaign had a $2,742,875 surplus as of Dec. 31.

David Skolnick covers politics for the Tribune Chronicle and The Vindicator.